A stutterer's journal is partly inspired by an autobiography called a stutterer's story. I am a very private person, but this is my online journal. I have a really boring life, but this is my random thoughts on stuttering and other stuff. I will post a quote everyday and comment on it. For example, "life's battles don't always go to the strongest or fastest man; but sooner or later the man who wins is the man who thinks he can!"
Friday, March 04, 2011
Timber. Inflation Hedge
If you start a conversation about the building inflationary pressures already sapping consumer pocketbooks, that talk will almost certainly turn to such classic hedges as gold, silver and even crude oil.
But one of the best inflationary hedges of the 20th century is often forgotten - even though it's likely to be just as effective this time around.
We're talking about timber - and timber stocks. And the facts speak for themselves.
Investing in timber is a move virtually every investor should carefully consider.
Timber Trumps Inflation In case you're sitting in Oregon, Kentucky or some other state that's rich with forests - and therefore doubt the value of timber as an inflationary hedge. Here is some research to consider. If you look at this with an open mind, you'll see that timber is not only a great hedge against inflation, but it's a market-beating investment in virtually every type of investment environment.
If you need to be persuaded timber investing is a strategy you need to employ, consider that:
* In the modern era, inflation has never been a match for timber, which has risen faster than overall prices for more than a century. During America's last major inflationary period - from 1973 to 1981, when inflation averaged 9.2% - timberland values increased by an average of 22% per year. On average, the price of harvested lumber itself has risen more than 5% annually over the past 100 years.
* Since 1910, the value of timberland as an investment has risen faster - and with less volatility - than stocks as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Since 1987 alone - in spite of minor losses in 2010 due to the U.S. housing slump - the Timberland Index maintained by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries ((NCREIF)) has risen roughly 15% per year, compared to an annualized return of just 9.61% for the S&P 500.
* Timber investing has proven to be particularly alluring during bear markets. During the Great Depression, when stocks plunged more than 70%, timber gained 233%. And timber easily outperformed the S&P 500 during the 20th century's other major bear-market periods. Most recently, in 2008, when the S&P 500 lost 38%, the NCREIF Timberland Index gained 9.5%.
* Timber is a valuable tool for portfolio diversification since its price movements have a very low correlation with most other asset classes - less than +0.1.
* In spite of the glass-and-steel towers dominating the globe's urban landscapes, demand for timber is now higher than ever. The U.S. is the world's No. 1 consumer of wood products, using 27% of the timber harvested each year. The average American uses the equivalent of one 100-foot tree per year, and the rest of the world is quickly catching up. In fact, the United Nations now predicts demand for wood will double in the next 30 years, with China - already No. 2 in wood consumption - pacing the growth. As evidence of that demand, lumber exports from Canada to Asia have nearly quadrupled in the past five years alone.
* Although timber is considered a renewable resource and new trees are planted each year to replace a growing portion of the annual harvest, the world's wood supply is steadily shrinking (by an estimated 2.4% annually in the 1990s). In tropical regions, about 130,000 square kilometers (50,193 square miles) of forest is being destroyed each year. Roughly half of the forests that originally covered 46% of the earth's land surface are now gone, and 56% of North America's coastal rain forests have been destroyed. This is yet another persuasive argument that timber investing represents a significant long-term profit play.
Not Just an Inflation Hedge
If inflation isn't a worry for you, you still shouldn't ignore timber stocks. Historically, timber has proved itself to be a highly profitable investment - and thanks to rising global demand, timber shares should be top performers (as measured against other assets) in years to come.
Globally, the long-term supply-demand outlook for lumber - and for wood products in general - is highly bullish. And when you factor in shorter-term cyclical considerations - such as those related to the U.S. housing market - it gets even more attractive.
U.S. housing prices have experienced a major decline since 2006. And as prices have fallen, so has new construction. But while housing prices remain near their nadir, both buyer demand and building activity have started to increase.
The U.S. Department of Commerce, which tracks the U.S. housing market, reported that sales of new single-family homes rose to an annual rate of 329,000 in December, the highest level since the expiration of the federal-homebuyer tax credit in April (though the total for all of 2010 was just 321,000, down 14.4% from 2009). The available supply of new homes also dropped (from 8.4 months' worth of inventory to just 6.9 months' worth), and the median price leaped from $215,500 in November to $241,500.
Looking forward, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) also reported that pending home sales rose 2.0% in December, the fifth increase in the past six months, although the NAR's pending sales index was still 4.2% below year-ago levels.
On the construction side, the Commerce Department said U.S. home construction fell 4.3% in December to an annualized rate of 529,000, though some of the decline in housing starts was blamed on bad weather. More importantly, permits for new construction - a better gauge of future housing-market activity - rose to an annualized rate of 635,000 in December, well above expectations and the highest level since March 2010.
The number of potential homebuyers also is likely to increase in the months ahead: The Conference Board just reported that its index of consumer confidence climbed to 60.6 in January, sharply higher than expected and the highest reading since May 2010. Consumer optimism was particularly strong in terms of the outlook for higher wages and more job creation.
That prospective surge in housing demand bodes well for a continued rise in raw lumber prices, which have actually increased (25% in 2009 alone) in spite of reduced building activity over the past four years, thanks to lower output by lumber producers.
Top Profit Plays
Unfortunately, it's not that easy for individual investors to make direct investments in lumber. And it's even more difficult to invest in the land on which lumber-producing trees grow. Although 71% of North American timberland is privately owned (the rest resides in national forests), the owners are almost exclusively companies in the forestry business or Timberland Investment Management Organizations (TIMOs).
TIMOs, created in the 1970s after Congress mandated broader diversification for institutional investment portfolios, are similar to real estate investment trusts (REITs). But TIMOs cater to large investors - pension funds, mutual funds and some wealthy individuals who can afford the typical minimum investment of $5 million. At the end of 2009, TIMOs had about $24 billion invested in U.S. timberland, up from just $1 billion in 1989.
Given that significant "barrier to entry," the best way for most individual investors to tap into these substantial opportunities in timber is by investing in the stock of corporations that own lots if it. Two timber-investing possibilities worth considering are:
* Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (PCL), recent price $41.09: Plum Creek is based in Seattle, but has a long reach; it owns timberland in 19 states - from Washington to Maine and Wisconsin to Mississippi. Its forest holdings are also broadly diversified by species - from redwood and spruce, to ash and oak - as well as by age. The company also has a secondary division that focuses on mineral extraction and natural-gas production, giving it an extra edge in the inflation-hedge category. Plum Creek had revenue of $1.19 billion in 2010, producing earnings of $1.24 a share. The dividend of $1.68 gives the stock a very nice yield of 4.06%.
* Rayonier Inc. (RYN), recent price $59.83: Structured as a REIT, Rayonier owns, leases or manages around 2.5 million acres of timberland in the United States and New Zealand. It also owns three sawmills in Georgia and two specialty cellulose mills. The company produces both cellulose fibers and fluff pulp and engages in the international log-trading market. It also owns a separate portfolio of non-timber-related real estate. Based in Jacksonville, Fla., the company had 2010 revenue of $1.315 billion, which generated diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.54. Rayonier shares pay a dividend of $2.04 each, for a yield of 3.60%.
If you'd like more of a "nameplate" stock - not to mention one that's got more room to rebound from the effects of the recent housing downturn - a third possible timber-investing candidate worth consideration is:
* Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY), recent price $23.66: This Washington-based forest-products giant ($13.47 billion market cap) has customers worldwide, serving them with a wide range of construction materials, paper products, fibers and lumber. It manages 22 million acres of forests in 10 countries, and also has numerous mineral, oil and gas operations. Its real estate division also engages in property development, home construction and the real estate brokerage business. The stock traded above $50 a share in April 2010, but eased off in May and June with the rest of the market. Don't, however, let the current low price confuse you - it reflects a special stock-or-cash dividend of $5.6 billion (about $26 per share) paid Sept. 1, 2010, to stockholders of record in July 2010. That payout is a key step in Weyerhaeuser's plan to become a REIT. The company reported $6.55 billion in total revenue for 2010, up from $5.52 billion in 2009. That translated into diluted earnings per share of $3.99 for the year, up from a loss of $2.58 in 2009. The stock pays a regular dividend of 60 cents a share, representing a yield of 2.55%.
For investors who don't want the risk of a single-company investment, there are several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold a broad portfolio of timber stocks, including those just mentioned. Two of the leaders are:
* Claymore Beacon Global Timber Index Fund (CUT), recent price $21.93: This fund attempts to mirror the performance of stocks making up the Beacon Global Timber Index, which is composed of companies from around the world that own or lease forest land, harvest trees for lumber and other wood-based products, and that produce such finished products as lumber, paper and even packaging. All have a minimum market capitalization of $300 million, and trade in the United States as common stocks, American depositary receipts (ADRs), or global depositary receipts. The fund's 52-week low of $8.00 a share occurred during last May's "flash crash." But its "effective (non-flash-crash) low" for the year was around $17.50 in late August, meaning it has gained about 28% over the past six months. The fund paid a 59-cent dividend in 2010, good for a current yield of about 3.00%.
* The iShares S&P Global Timber & Forestry Index Fund (WOOD), recent price $47.34: This ETF seeks to mirror the price and yield performance of the S&P Global Timber & Forestry Index, which consists of roughly 25 publicly traded companies engaged in the ownership, management or upstream supply chain of forests and timberlands. These include forest products companies, timber real estate investment trusts (REITs), paper-products companies, paper-packaging companies and agricultural-products companies. The fund bottomed with the rest of the market in early July at $21.05, climbing steadily since. This iShares fund has no regular declared dividend, but paid two special dividends totaling $1.12 in 2010. The expense ratio is 0.48%.
If the housing market finally moves into a full-fledged recovery, and the consumer middle class continues to emerge in countries around the world (both virtual certainties), then timberland and wood products should continue to follow the bullish path that they've followed for the last 100 years.
And that means that timber investing shouldn't be viewed as just an inflation hedge - it should be looked at as a core investment strategy every investor should employ.
Thursday, March 03, 2011
Jessica (Jess) Stone.....blog
She said: "I realized that the way I thought about my stuttering – and not the stuttering – was the real problem. I had put such suffocating pressure on myself to have perfect speech, never noticing that even fluent speakers speak imperfectly. On the bus home, I marveled at the prison I had created for myself; and I alone knew the way out. I felt incredibly liberated."
Douglas Wing and Connie never replied to my Emails and never answered my Phone calls
Feb, 27, 2011
Stuttering: A problem of kings, commoners
stuttering: Tacoma workshop Saturday
DEBBY ABE; Staff writer
If it were up to him, 13-year-old Chase Cloutier would give tonight’s Academy Award for best actor to Colin Firth for his portrayal of King George VI in “The King’s Speech.”
The Gig Harbor youth wouldn’t be afraid to hand the Oscar to Firth and say a few words in front of millions of viewers, even though he shares a noticeable trait with the British ruler. Chase stutters.
“It’s a good, good, movie of a person who stutters who overcomes his fears,” Chase said in an interview. “He still stuttered in the end. Cause you know ... you can’t be magically cured.”
Chase and countless other people who stutter are praising “The King’s Speech” as a movie that offers a realistic glimpse into the sometimes agonizing, sometimes triumphant world of people who stutter.
Firth’s King George VI, called Bertie by his family, finds himself uncomfortably thrust into the spotlight in 1936 when his brother gives up the throne to marry an American divorcee. Bertie has stammered all his life and dreads being in the position of having to speak officially, especially in public. The movie focuses on Bertie’s therapy with an Australian elocutionist.
The film has won accolades from groups representing speech therapists and people who stutter for raising public awareness about stuttering. Speech-language pathologists have encouraged their adolescent and adult clients who stutter to see the movie, which is rated R.
It’s sure to be a topic of discussion at the 14th Annual Stuttering Workshop at Larchmont Elementary School in Tacoma on Saturday. Many families who have attended in the past say it’s a life-changing event that allows children who stutter to finally meet other kids and adults who stutter.
“Most movies portray stuttering in a negative light. It’s either something to be laughed at, or a person who’s mentally unstable stutters. That’s not what stuttering is like,” said Tacoma speech-language pathologist Elaine Saitta, who also stutters. “The general consensus is it’s nice to see a movie that portrays stuttering in more of a real way. It’s not perfect, but it does a pretty good job.”
Saitta, who runs a support group for teens who stutter, organized an outing for them and their parents to see the movie and talk about it.
The families all could identify with one particularly painful scene in which Bertie fails miserably as he stands before a microphone trying to speak at a stadium packed with spectators.
“Watching him struggle and that feeling of being stuck and everyone staring at you is a feeling people who stutter understand very well,” Saitta said.
Even the most mundane activities, from buying a candy bar to answering the phone, can be difficult for people who stutter. Some people who stutter do whatever they can to avoid the situations altogether.
“It can be very handicapping if the person allows it to be,” said Staci Schmitt, a speech-language pathologist in Olympia. “Someone can stutter a lot but not be bothered by it. Others might have more of a mild stutter but are very conscious of it; it impacts their lives because they don’t want to talk.”
That’s where Chase was until he began therapy with Saitta a couple of years ago.
“I wouldn’t talk a whole lot in class and around school. I wouldn’t raise my hand to answer a question, or talk to kids to ask them for a pencil or if I could have help with a project or anything,” said Chase, a seventh-grader at Kopachuck Middle School.
“I was just scared they would mimic me or tease me or something like that. I have been teased before, quite a few times. It made me feel a bit bad. It’s something I can’t change.”
Preschoolers who stutter as part of their language development often outgrow it, but most youth who stutter into adolescence will continue to stutter, Saitta said. “Adults who stutter will probably always stutter,” she said.
Researchers aren’t exactly sure what causes stuttering, but believe it involves a combination of genetics, neurological predisposition and the environment. It’s not caused by nervousness, lack of intelligence or a psychological problem. “I often tell people I don’t stutter because I’m nervous,” Saitta said, “I’m nervous because I stutter.”
With therapy, people can learn to manage their stuttering. It may involve techniques, such as gliding into a word or focusing on how sounds are produced. One labor-intensive technique, for instance, requires a person to speak in chunks of three or four words, then take a breath, Schmitt said. Some methods show people how to “pull out” and move on if they’ve already gotten stuck on a word.
“The other thing I work really hard on is acceptance, and just being OK with it. The more we fight it, the more it will happen,” Saitta said. “The goal of therapy is often to be able to say what you want to say when you want to say it.”
Since each person’s speech impediment is unique, therapies vary significantly with each individual.
And techniques have changed radically since the 1930s when Bertie was searching for help.
Talking with marbles in the mouth, smoking to relax the larynx, and swearing – tasks that experts have Bertie attempt to stop stuttering – have been shown to be ineffective, Schmitt said.
“The therapy was painful to watch,” she said. “That was before the field (of speech-language pathology) was established.”
But some of the therapies enlisted by Bertie’s therapist, Lionel Logue, played by actor Geoffrey Rush, are used successfully today. Talking in different social settings is a commonly used tool.
In his therapy with Saitta, Chase said, “she taught me to advertise, which is you go up to shops and to people and tell them you stutter and ask if they’ve known anyone who stutters and what their stuttering was like. Or it can be as helpful as saying, ‘My name is Chase. How much does this cost?’”
He didn’t stop at one-on-one conversations. In sixth grade, he gave a speech about stuttering to his leadership class. On National Stuttering Awareness Day last October, he stepped onto the school stage to talk about stuttering, and manned a table to hand out buttons and brochures about stuttering.
“It was awesome,” Chase said. Students told him, “‘I didn’t know you stutter. That’s cool.’ I got a lot of good, good comments.”
Through practice and therapy, he said, “probably the biggest thing I learned was to be OK with it. ... Otherwise I wouldn’t get to speak with The News Tribune, write a paper, speak at school or be on the radio. It’s opened a lot of great opportunities for me.”
Debby Abe: 253-597-8694
debby.abe@thenewstribune.com
STUTTERING WORKSHOP
What: National Stuttering Association Tacoma/South Puget Sound 14th Annual Stuttering Workshop
When: 9 a.m.-4 p.m. Saturday
Where: Larchmont Elementary School, 8601 E. B St., Tacoma
Cost: Free, though donations are accepted
Who: For children who stutter and their parents
Details: Workshops on stuttering led by national and local experts; kids games and activities, free pizza lunch.
Preregistration and info: Mary Turcotte at 360-507-4761 or mturcotte@osd.wednet.edu; Connie Haines at 253-677-6800 or ConnieDHaines@gmail.com; Douglas Wing at 253-314-1745 or douggloriawing@msn.com.
Sponsors: Tacoma, Sumner and Olympia school districts; Pepsi of Tacoma.
Articles on stuttering and “The King’s Speech”: National Stuttering Association at www.nsastutter.org or The American Speech-Language-Hearing Association Leader at www.asha.org/leader.aspx.
8 AWS & 8 AWNS
Abstract (Summary)
Multifactorial models of stuttering suggest cognitive, affective, linguistic, and social factors influence the speech motor system of people who stutter and these factors may be different across people who stutter. However, little research has described the influence of contextual factors on the speech motor processes and autonomic responses of adults who stutter (AWS). Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the effect of linguistic, memory, and social factors on the perceptually fluent speech and affective responses of AWS.
A total of 8 AWS and 8 adults who do not stutter (AWNS) participated in this study. Each participant completed three speaking tasks that imposed either a linguistic, memory, or social demand. Autonomic data (heart rate and pulse volume), perceived anxiety, and acoustic data were collected during each speaking task. Acoustic data was analyzed for differences of mean central tendency and intra-speaker variability for phrase duration, word duration, vowel duration, voice onset time, F2 transition duration, F2 transition rate, and F2 transition extent.
Acoustic results showed that AWS were not different than AWNS on temporal and spectral measures of central tendency as well as temporal variability. However, AWS were significantly more variable in F2 transition extent than AWNS across all speaking tasks suggesting greater variability in posterior to anterior tongue advancement. Results also showed the linguistic task generally contributed to longer and more variable temporal durations when compared to the control, audience, or memory tasks. Autonomic results showed AWS were similar to AWNS in their levels of autonomic arousal and perceived anxiety across the speaking tasks. Analyses of individual participants revealed that the greatest increase in autonomic arousal or perceived anxiety during the speaking tasks did not always relate to an increase in temporal or spectral intra-speaker variability. History of stuttering and treatment for stuttering did not predict trends in intra-speaker variability. Interestingly, a negative relationship existed for AWS between heart rate and perceived anxiety during the audience task.
The findings are discussed relative to clinical implications for the field of stuttering and multifactorial models of stuttering. Directions for future research are also proposed.
| Advisor: | Healey, Charles |
| Committee members: | Green, Jordan, Carrell, Thomas, Horn, Christy |
| School: | The University of Nebraska - Lincoln |
| Department: | Communication Disorders |
| School Location: | United States -- Nebraska |
| Keyword(s): | Acoustics, Autonomic response, Motor control, Speech, Stuttering, Speech motor control |
Old blog by Silvano....circa 1995
http://thestutteringbrain.blogspot.com/2007/10/crackpot-award-for-bodehamer.html